Happy New Year! A College Football Preview

Happy New Year All! August as well as the Summer is coming to a close and that can only mean one thing, football season is finally upon us! Weather you like the enthusiasm of the college game or the NFL after 2 months of nothing but baseball you gotta’ be chompin’ at the bit so opening weekend, regardless of how many good games there are on the schedule, must be as coveted as poolside reservations at the Cosmo in Vegas on NYE. Well hopefully we can satisfy your jones until September 3rd by previewing the college football season. Don’t worry, we’ll be back with the NFL next week but digest this first.

ncaafootballrankings

Well, although they don’t really matter until November let’s take a look at rankings as those are the starting blocks to see how far some schools have to go to get into the playoff. Ok, so they are as useless as a cheeseless pizza, but they lead us to our first talking point of the season. 1. The Pac-12, top to bottom, is the best conference in the country this year. Yep, it was close last year as come bowl time the SEC didn’t look so invinceable and the Pac-12 had the best conference record, again. This year they go over the top and stake claim to the best. With Oregon (7), USC (8), UCLA (14), AZ State (15), Stanford (21), and Arizona (22), in the top-25 literally half their conference is among the best in the nation and what that means that almost any Saturday you have about a 50% chance or better of getting beat on the road within the conference. If you even schedule one ranked team in your three non-conference games, your strength-of-schedule component will be among the best come computer ranking time. No doubt, the SEC is well represented as well with actually more teams (7) and their best ranking higher, Alabama (3), Auburn (6), Georgia (9), LSU (14), Ole’ Miss (17), Arkansas (18), and Missouri (24) but only one school from the SEC East, Georgia can really make a run at the title and certainly will at least have some off weeks, with the SEC West and both Pac-12 divisions will be trying to survive and advance every week. In addition to having 14 teams in the conference which really allows you to side-step some land mines each year, we just believe top-to-bottom the Pac has more quality.

Can the Buckeyes repeat? Hell Yea, and I’m not even an OSU alum drinking the punch. Ranked properly at #1 to start the season, and garnering all 61 votes in the AP poll as the defending champ should with as many players returning, it looks like Urban U is ready to make a run at it and add and ‘D’ to they’re acronym for OSUDynasty. I gotta’ tell ya, this school reloads as well if not better than Kentucky in basketball. The big question is does J.T. Barrett suffer the Sophomore jinx? When schools have weeks to scout for him will he be as effective? Can he take them through an entire season? Can Ezekiel Elliott stay healthy? All of these will be answered in due time and if he passes all exams then no doubt with only a couple of games to worry about the Bucks will back in the Eye of the committee come selection show, even with the loss of Noah Brown.

Lastly, I think this will be the year that the College Football Playoff takes a huge hit from the pundits, lobbyist, and fans as the door will be shut on few schools like it is every year, only this time the hairs they split to separate 4 from 5, 6, and maybe even 7 will be thinner than normal and you won’t need a forensic expert to make a case for those left out. It will end the current format once again and open the field up to 8 next season. With that in mind here are some the key games on the schedule this year that will shape which schools will be among the last four standing.

Auburn vs. Louisville (Sept. 5): With the exception of this game, Auburn’s nonconference schedule is atrocious. Matchups against Jacksonville State, San Jose State and Idaho will do nothing for the Tigers’ playoff resume, which is why a win over a respectable ACC team could help separate Auburn down the stretch in what will be a very tight SEC West race. The head-to-head against Alabama will be the deciding factor, but both programs have one marquee nonconference game on their schedules.

Oregon at Michigan State (Sept. 12): This one could come back to haunt either team if it doesn’t go on to win its respective conference championship game. The Spartans’ loss to Oregon last season deflated their playoff hopes early but didn’t eliminate them entirely. The loser of this game would likely have to win its league championship to overcome this loss. Michigan State learned last season it can’t afford to lose to Oregon and Ohio State.

Notre Dame at Clemson (Oct. 3): Clemson has three games that will decide its place in the playoff, and this is one of them, along with facing Florida State and South Carolina. The Tigers probably can’t afford to go 1-2 against those teams and finish in the top four — even if they win the ACC title. What if Notre Dame and Clemson both finish with one loss, but Clemson is ACC champ? Head-to-head should be the tiebreaker.

Alabama at Georgia (Oct. 3):Alabama and Auburn are both on Georgia’s schedule, so the Bulldogs can’t afford to go 0-for-2 against the best of the West and expect a spot in the top four. Georgia could lose this game and still win the East, but it would still severely diminish its margin for error considering the Bulldogs have a road trip to a much-improved Tennessee team the following week.

USC at Notre Dame (Oct. 17):USC has a schedule tailor-made to impress the selection committee, and if Notre Dame goes undefeated, it should be in. It’s not a conference game for the Trojans, so there’s some margin for error here if they can still get into the Pac-12 title game, but the Irish could have fewer opportunities against ranked opponents to make an impression. USC could be the best team Notre Dame faces all season.

Florida State at Clemson (Nov. 7): Since 2009, the winner of this game has won the Atlantic Division, and this year should continue that trend. Clemson will need to be the ACC champ if it trips up against South Carolina and/or Notre Dame. Don’t forget about 2013, when the Tigers were also favored to win the ACC and had FSU at home. The Noles came to Death Valley and began their national title campaign. They can do it again.

Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov. 21): The Big Ten’s heavyweights will take center stage in a game that should determine the East Division champ and, in turn, its best hope at a playoff representative. This is the most meaningful game on the Buckeyes’ schedule — yes, even bigger than The Game — and that’s because a win over nationally ranked Sparty is worth more to the selection committee than a win over a mediocre Michigan team, no matter who the coach is.

Baylor at TCU (Nov. 27): Head-to-head matters. We learned that last year, albeit a few weeks late. It will now determine “one true champion” in the Big 12, and no game means more to the league’s place in the playoff. Because of its soft nonconference schedule, Baylor has little if any margin for error, but TCU learned it can’t lose this game and get into the top four. A one-loss Big 12 team wasn’t good enough for the playoff last year.

Alabama at Auburn (Nov. 28): When doesn’t this game mean something? Unless LSU has something to say about it, this game could determine the winner of the West, putting one of these teams in the drivers’ seat toward the playoff. It’s quite possible one or both of them have two losses at this point. Odds are the SEC champ is going to have a blemish or two.

UCLA at USC (Nov. 28): This regular-season finale could determine the Pac-12 South winner, which should have an edge in the eyes of the selection committee because of how deep and difficult the division is. There are high expectations for the crosstown rivals, and this game could eliminate one of them from the playoff race.

This season is shaping up to be one of the best so buckle up and we’ll be back with the NFL next week!

Leave a Reply